🔗 Share this article

As dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained confined in a airless conference room, oblivious whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in strained discussions, with numerous ministers representing 17 groups of countries including the most vulnerable nations to the wealthiest economies.

Tempers were short, the air thick as weary delegates faced up to the grim reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference hovered near the brink of total collapse.

The sticking point: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is warming our planet to alarming levels.

Yet, during over three decades of annual climate meetings, the urgent need to stop fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a decision made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Delegates from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and several other countries were adamant this would not happen again.

Growing momentum for change

Meanwhile, a growing number of countries were similarly resolved that movement on this issue was urgently necessary. They had created a proposal that was gathering increasing support and made it clear they were ready to dig in.

Developing countries strongly sought to advance on securing economic resources to help them address the already disastrous impacts of climate disasters.

Turning point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to leave and cause breakdown. "The situation was precarious for us," commented one government representative. "I was prepared to walk away."

The breakthrough came through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, principal delegates left the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the chief Saudi negotiator. They urged text that would subtly reference the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

Instead of explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the Dubai agreement". Upon deliberation, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably accepted the wording.

Delegates expressed relief. Cheers erupted. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took another small step towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a faltering, inadequate step that will scarcely affect the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a notable change from absolute paralysis.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Alongside the indirect reference in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a plan to gradually eliminate fossil fuels
• This will be largely a non-binding program led by Brazil that will provide updates next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries achieved a tripling to $120bn of yearly funding to help them adapt to the impacts of climate disasters
• This funding will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in high-carbon industries move toward the clean economy

Varied responses

As the world teeters on the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could eliminate habitats and throw whole regions into crisis, the agreement was far from the "significant advancement" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the correct path, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," warned one environmental analyst.

This flawed deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the international tensions – including a Washington administration who ignored the talks and remains wedded to oil and coal, the increasing presence of nationalist politics, persistent fighting in different locations, extreme measures of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the energy conglomerates – were finally in the focus at the climate summit," says one environmental advocate. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is available. Now we must convert it to a actual pathway to a protected environment."

Deep fissures revealed

Even as nations were able to applaud the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted significant divisions in the sole international mechanism for addressing the climate crisis.

"International summits are consensus-based, and in a time of international tensions, unanimity is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one senior UN official. "I cannot pretend that Cop30 has provided all that is needed. The gap between where we are and what research requires remains dangerously wide."

When the world is to avoid the worst ravages of climate crisis, the UN climate talks alone will prove insufficient.