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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole head of an EU nation to support Donald Trump. This support came as no shock, given Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial ideas such as great replacement ideology and the restrictions against press independence. Commentators have noted that Hungary's premier more or less wrote the playbook for the Maga movement, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors In advance of the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with crucial Hungarian elections just approaching in six months, the US president offered electoral assistance. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth straight win governing a country he calls an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party currently trails in opinion polls. A meeting to Washington yielded beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although earlier admonishing EU countries on the necessity to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and warning of restrictions against states still to import Russian energy, Mr Trump approved to provide a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also pledged to extend a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it encounters any future difficulties, given that the European Union is still blocking billions in EU funding to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this deal are vague. However the US president illustrated his inclination to support ideological allies as the US provided a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. Although the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a presidential tour to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Trump's actions likely further underlined the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, ahead of which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, enjoys a solid advantage in surveys. European leaders are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the US president’s moves to diminish the European Union. But the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American energy resources – openly contradicts EU aspirations to eliminate Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided substantial funds to the Russian military campaign.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has avoided pledging a major policy shift on the Ukraine conflict, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while highlighting the necessity for the country to finally behave as a positive member state. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only remain patient. The Hungarian leader's apathy to core EU ideals, including the upholding of minority rights and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His continued obstructionism regarding Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its long-term safety.